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Suppose that there are two (2) candidates (i.e., Jones and Johns) in the upcoming presidential election.  Sara notes that she has discussed the presidential election candidates with 15 friends, and 10 said that they are voting for candidate Jones. Sara is therefore convinced that candidate Jones will win the election because Jones gets more than 50% of votes.

Answer the following questions in the space provided below:

  1. Based on what you now know about statistical inference, is Sara’s conclusion a logical conclusion? Why or why not?
  2. How many friend samples Sara should have in order to draw the conclusion with 95% confidence interval? Why?
  3. How would you explain your conclusion to Sara without using any statistical jargon? Why?

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