Assignment 2: Probability Analysis

 

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

 

Options:

 

Facility	Demand Options	Probability	Actions	Expected Payoffs
Large	Low Demand	0.4	Do Nothing	($10)
	Low Demand	0.4	Reduce Prices	$50
	High Demand	0.6		$70
Small	Low Demand	0.4		$40
	High Demand	0.6	Do Nothing	$40
	High Demand	0.6	Overtime	$50
	High Demand	0.6	Expand	$55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

 

Build Small:
Low Demand	0.4($40)=$16
High Demand	0.6($55)=$33
Build Large:
Low Demand	0.4($50)=$20
High Demand	0.6($70)=$42

 

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62

 

Submit your conclusion in a Word document to the M4: Assignment 2 Dropbox by Wednesday, August 13, 2014.

 

Assignment 2 Grading Criteria	Maximum Points
The diagram is accurate and labeled correctly. The diagram clearly illustrates the sequence of events and their probability of occurrences.	32
A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for the chance of probability and respective payoff is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.	28
A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for expected value is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.	20
Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision.	20
Total:	100

 

 

 

inbox 

Questions in attached word doc.

This only has to be 250-275 words…

 

For your final assessment this week you will be asked to select a culture that you will investigate further. This culture can be one that was discussed in class or one that is familiar to you. 

To prepare you for this task, you will select three-to-six peer reviewed sources on the culture of your choice. Look for:

• Typical academic challenges
• Ideal teaching strategies
• Parental involvement techniques
• Rich cultural attributes (e.g., strengths, history, or traditions). 
• Then post an annotated bibliography of what you have found.

Example:

APA reference (One paragraph that summarizes the reference and describes how it addresses one or more of the 4 research requirements listed above)

Assignment 2: LASA 1: The Costs of Production

Joseph Farms, Inc. is a small firm in the agricultural industry. They have asked you to help them complete the limited data they have gathered in an effort to enable effective decision-making. Some work can be done using MS Excel but it must be copied to an MS Word file for the final submission of this assignment. To assist Joseph Farms, Inc., respond to the following:

• Using MS Excel or a table in MS Word, complete Table-1 (Joseph Farms, Inc., Cost and Revenue Data).
  • Assume that the price is $165.
  • Assume the fixed costs are $125, at an output level of 1.
  • Assume that the data represents a firm in pure competition.
  • Show your calculations. 
• Explain the MC=MR Rule.  Describe the market structures to which this rule applies. 
• Create a chart to illustrate the data in Columns 9 and 10. 
• Describe the profit maximizing (or loss minimizing) output for this firm.  Explain why or why not there is an economic profit? 
• Explain why a firm in pure competition is considered to be a “price taker.” 

 (Assignment continues below Table-1.)

Table-1:  Joseph Farms, Inc., Cost and Revenue Data

Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7		Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11
Output Level	Price per unit	Total Fixed Cost	Total Variable Cost	Total Cost	Average Fixed Cost	Average Variable Cost		Average Total Cost	Marginal Cost	Marginal Revenue	Total Revenue
0			$             –		NA
1			$    113.00
2			$    213.00
3			$    300.00
4			$    375.00
5			$    463.00
6			$    563.00
7			$    675.00
8			$    813.00
9			$    975.00
10			$ 1,163.00

 

• Using the data in Table-1 (Joseph Farms, Inc., Cost and Revenue Data), complete Table-2 (Joseph Farms, Inc., Revenue/Profit/Loss Data). Show your calculations in summary form. 
• Using the completed data in Table-2 (Joseph Farms, Inc., Revenue/Profit/Loss Data), Identify the break even output level for this firm. 

Table-2: Joseph Farms, Inc., Revenue/Profit/Loss Data

Output Level	Price	Total Revenue	Total Costs from Table 1	Profit or Loss
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Save your MS Word file including your graphs or charts using the filename LastnameFirstInitial_M3A2 and submit it to the M3: Assignment 2 Dropbox by Wednesday, June 24, 2015.

Remember, quotations, paraphrases, and ideas you get from books, articles, or other sources of information should be cited using APA style. Help with citing sources can be found through the Academic Resources page under Course Home.

Assignment 2 Grading Criteria	Maximum Points
Accurately calculated cost data (total fixed, total, average fixed, average variable, average total, and marginal) and revenue data (marginal and total) for output level ranging from 1 to 10 in Table-1.  Showed calculations in summary form. Correctly assumed data represented a firm in pure competition. (40 points) Completed Table-1 as Microsoft Excel spreadsheet or Word table. (8 points)	48
Explained the MC=MR Rule. (12 points) Identified market structures the MC=MR Rule applies to.  (8 points) Explained why MC=MR Rule applies to these market structures.  (12 points)	32
Graphed all the data in column 9 of Table-1 (marginal cost) as curves in Microsoft Excel. (8 points) Graphed all the data in column 10 of Table-1 (marginal revenue) as curves in Microsoft Excel. (8 points)	16
Explained the profit maximizing (or loss minimizing) output for Joseph’s Farms, Inc. (14 points) Explained whether or not there is an economic profit for Joseph’s Farms, Inc. (14 points)	28
Explained why a firm in pure competition is considered to be a “price taker.”	28
Accurately calculated price, total revenue, and profit or loss data for output level ranging from 0 to 10 in Table-2 using data from Table-1. Showed calculations. (10 points) Completed Table-2 as Microsoft Excel spreadsheet or Word table. (2 points)	12
Accurately calculated the break-even output level (break-even point) for Joseph’s Farms, Inc. using data in Table-2.  Showed calculations.	16
Style (4 points): Tone, audience, and word choice. Usage and Mechanics (4 points): Grammar, spelling, and sentence structure. APA Elements (12 points): In text citations and references, paraphrasing, and appropriate use of quotations and other elements of style.	20
Total:	200